I was recently at a Move-On.org house party, and I got into an inevitable debate with a 9/11 skeptic. At one point, he inaccurately cited Occam’s Razor, by stating that “the simplest explanation is the best one” and hence that the official story that 19 Arab terrorists hijacked those planes and crashed them into the towers and Pentagon causing all the subsequent calamity is the simplest, and thus most likely answer. And I tend to respect the value this precept myself, so it gave me pause. The actual Occam’s razor more closely states the simplest path to an answer is the best one, but I will not split hairs.
But as I contemplated this, I realized it cuts to the very heart of the problem most skeptics have with the 9/11 Truth movement. They think it is simply too fantastic, too complex, too improbable to even consider a conspiracy beyond Al Kaida. Unfortunately, these people know nothing of statistical analysis.
If you consider all aspects of 9/11 objectively, really quite the opposite is apparent. The official 9/11 story consists of a long string of highly unlikely events, all of which must happen almost simultaneously for it to be true, and with each event overcoming anywhere from “very bad” to “astronomically bad” odds individually.
The odds against 3 separate buildings collapsing due to fire in the same day, with differing constructions, in the same location is astronomical, when none had ever done so before in history. The chances against 19 young Arabs getting on to the planes unnoticed, successfully taking them over, and then flying them into targets hundreds of miles away is astronomical.. The chances that on the day they executed this marvel, virtually the ENTIRE US AIR FORCE would be away on a drill, or otherwise ineffective, are slim. That some miraculous chimney effect, when the buildings were designed specifically to prevent it, allowed kerosene fires to soften steel, all but impossible. Etc. etc. etc. A complete list would go on for some time…
And then, statistically you have to multiply all these odds together, since they all had to happen within the course of only one day and often at precisely the right times. Numerous major long shots all had to come in simultaneously to make the official story valid. Vegas would be ruined if this were this to happen on any single day in sports. And this is the simple answer?
On the contrary, statistically, it is much more likely, and of dramatically higher probability, that for so many highly improbable events to successfully converge, all the elements must be carefully planned and executed. Then the probabilities against each element go way down. Not away mind you — the perpetrators still faced many challenges, but the odds are infinitely better. And the odds of our government being willing to do it, even to sacrifice 3000 people is easily one to one, given their track record in numerous imperial escapades and false-flag operations over the last two centuries.
So yes, Occam’s Razor applies. The simplest path to an answer- that most or all the seemingly miraculous events of 9/11 were planned and executed by people who had the motive, power, access, and range of influence to pull it off, is the always best one. Only three factions I can think of had a motive, Al Kaida, the Bush Admin/Neocon Oil cartel, and possibly radical factions in the Israeli government (possibly to justify a much stronger pro Israel US military presence in the gulf). You do the math.